The French legislative agenda
For those not following the French political agenda, I don’t blame you, even if you are French. In short, after a somewhat anxiety-causing presidential election which saw centrist President Macron reelected for a second (and final) term, the focus is now set on upcoming legislative elections, which are due to take place next month. In normal circumstances, this should not be such a huge deal, but these are not normal circumstances…
For one, the majority Macron got in the election is significantly lower than the first time around (58% vs 66%), even though he was facing an extreme right candidate in the person of Marine Le Pen (both times), i.e. a politician whose program should only represent a fringe electorate. The large pro-Macron legislative majority that followed in 2017 may therefore not come all that easily the second time around, especially as many are now familiar with the scenario.
Second, both extremes — Le Pen, obviously, but also far left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon — are positioning their troops to try and get enough representatives elected to tilt the executive agenda their way. In the case of Mélenchon, the tactic is remarkably unsubtle: his movement has been sticking posters all over town (at least Paris Town) with a slogan that reads “Mélenchon Prime Minister”. For those who may not know how the French system works (again, no blame here), the Prime Minister is nominated by the President following the legislative elections. He should represent the majority, or else his actions could be curtailed by said parliament. In other words, this is not a vote to elect the Prime Minister the way you would have it in the UK, as the head of the executive branch happens to be the President over here. Slight difference.
Third, Mélenchon knows all that, obviously: he’s been in the game for decades, first being elected senator back in 1986 (!). This is essentially a tactical position to galvanize his somewhat gullible troops who were left greatly disappointed when their champion failed to qualify for the second round in last month’s election. His goal is not to get elected (or, rather, nominated): his party currently has 17 representatives — out of 577 — and the left-wing coalition he is building gets you to 68. While the number may increase this year, the game is more likely being played between centrist parties and center right movement Les Républicains, along with its offshoots (including former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe’s Horizons) — and Macron’s own party candidates, naturally.
The cherry on the cake: Mélenchon announced he will likely not run for legislative office again himself, thus theoretically hoping to get “elected” without actually running. His official reason is — his score in the presidential election is enough to cement his legitimacy for the role. The more plausible reason: he was likely not going to get elected the way he wanted to. Sources say he was looking for a district in/near Paris, i.e. the epicenter of French political power if there ever was one. However, he got elected in Marseille in 2017, i.e. the other side of the country. And the field around the capital is rather crowded, as one might expect…
In short, we are not entirely out of the woods, even though a significant part of the current French political noise is just that – noise. The next real challenge we as a nation will have to face comes five years from now…