Worst case scenario averted
I’m not gonna lie: the last couple of weeks have been fairly stressful living in France (and being French). Ever since 2002 and extreme right (“far right” doesn’t seem to cut it) candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen reaching the second round of the presidential election, the Front National threat kept on looming on the horizon. In 2017, as the Social party essentially imploded before our eyes, the Rassemblement National (a new and improved name for the same old party) reached the second round once again, this time with Jean-Marie’s daughter Marine gathering a third of the votes against virtual newcomer Emmanuel Macron. 2022 could only get worse, and it did: Le Pen Jr. got nearly 41.5% of the votes against Macron as the center right party Les Républicains vanished into thin air for good measure. The greater point here is — she didn’t get elected.
That said, the on-going French political war is not over, far from it. There are two clear next steps:
Legislative elections, that are due to take place in June. Ever since presidential and legislative mandates were set to the same duration under president Chirac’s rule, the newly elected ruler got to preside over a majority of representatives from his party. This time around, both the extreme right (Le Pen still) and left (La France Insoumise’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon) are betting on a “third round” that could theoretically counter-balance the results of the presidential election. While that claim is to be expected from challenging parties, the likelihood of such a scenario unfolding is very low because of institutional rules for one (candidates can only reach the second round if they gather 12.5% of all registered voters in their district) — and because they have significantly less local structures in place than other — and older — challengers.
The 2027 presidential election. While that deadline may appear quite distant now, it is actually almost around the corner in political years. Indeed, the succession to president Macron — and his party — is all but assured. We don’t yet know if his movement, En Marche, can survive its founder and leader leaving office. We also don’t yet know what will come of center left and right forces, all of which currently score appallingly low (national) results, stuck between the centrist president and those extreme elements. In such a context, the risk of one of those extreme elements doing (even) better than in previous occasions is more than serious. And Miss Le Pen will only be 58 then: she’s got all the time in the world…
Past the immediate — and very real — feeling of relief that came with last weekend’s news, we French people should now be very much focused on the next (real) political round that is to come: the after-Macron era and its array of uncertainties…