Super-sized mess

Morgan Spurlock, the man who created the infamous Super Size Me documentary, passed away a few months ago. That film was all about denouncing the extremes one’s body goes to if they indulge on junk food a little too much. We now know that the director/protagonist also happened to be at the height of his alcoholism during shooting, which may or may not have contributed to his poor health at the time. The parallel may be a little far fetched, but current US politics feel more confusing than that…

As we in France were focused on the risk of the far right taking over government, a couple of major events took place during the US Presidential race that shook things to their core. Up until a few weeks ago, incumbent President Biden was the undisputed democratic candidate, who had to contend with serious yet surmountable political issues including criticism over his administration’s work, his son getting convicted and, of course, his rather advanced age. Meanwhile, former President Trump was fighting off a series of lawsuits, all the while campaigning hard with ever more outlandish slogans and demagogic platforms. Although the race looked close, moderates were hopeful.

Then the first presidential debate happened. During those 90 minutes, President Biden looked lost at best, gone at worst. Not only did he struggle to answer basic questions about his government’s actions or plans, but he made confusing statements along the way, including that infamous “We finally beat Medicare” claim that came strictly unprompted. Trump was quite bad himself, blurting out wildly unfounded statements and being rather basic in his responses. But that was still enough to win a debate after which democrats realized that Biden’s mental state was a cause for actual and direct concern.

Following that, a number of democrats started publicly stating that the President should drop out and make way for a more robust candidate. High profile officials, Hollywood stars and media personalities were starting to show that the moderate block was getting scared. Opinion polls all but confirmed that shift: Biden was starting to lose big in key swing states against Trump. In private, people were seemingly intimating a defiant Biden to step down. To no avail: he kept saying that he was the best candidate to win the November fight.

Then the Pennsylvania shooting happened. In his last campaign speech before the Republican convention was to formally declare him the party candidate, Donald Trump got shot in the ear by a young sniper whose motives we still don’t fully understand, and whose ability to get to a nearby rooftop unchecked will have to be fully investigated. In any event, Trump narrowly escaped death, which brought everybody, all the way to President Biden, to call for appeasement in a political landscape that had become dangerously brutal. And Trump instantly started benefiting from his new survivor status, with a beautifully timed photo to show for it.

For those who thought Trump would calm down after this, as he had first implied, reality quickly took over: not only did he pick a VP candidate that is a worse — and younger — version of himself, but he let a slew of officials make incredibly violent claims, that he all but embraced in his own statements. Meanwhile, the democratic camp chose to tactically stay silent, a plan made simpler when Biden tested positive for Covid and started isolating in his Delaware beach house. Former President Obama himself was said to pressure the incumbent to drop out: now could be as good a time as ever…

So, what will Biden do?

We don’t know yet. It appears that he is getting closer to accepting the fact his chances at reelection are slimming. But that is not a done deal and the man is known to be resilient, to the point of potential stubbornness. The other, bigger, issue is the matter of his replacement: with only a few months left before the election, it is crucial that a (nearly) last minute shake-up puts forth a solid candidate. And that is not a given: Vice-President Kamala Harris has low approval ratings, California Governor Gavin Newsom repeatedly said he was not interested, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is a bit of a long shot…

Replacing an incumbent running for reelection is very risky business. We witnessed that first-hand in France back in 2017, when outgoing Socialist President François Hollande was dismissed by his own party, who found him to be too unpopular and therefore chose to hold primaries. The result was as follows: Hollande didn’t enter the primaries as he knew he would not be the party’s pick, Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon did so poorly in the general election that it signaled the very end of the party as a leading political force — and Economy minister Emmanuel Macron got elected out of virtually nowhere.

So there you have it. An aging Biden is clearly a threat, especially now that he has shown in no uncertain terms that he has his down moments. A new candidate at this stage would also be extremely risky, as changes of this nature tend to make people conversely doubtful. Maybe a deal such as “elect me with the promise that I will hand the reigns to Kamala if things get bad”? Or get in a series of high profile advisors / appoint new and trusted government officials? In short, find the best possible scenario to appease voters.

Because Trump is sitting out there with his bandage on his ear and popcorn in his hands…

July 22nd update: what a difference a day makes…

President Joe Biden has now dropped out of the race and officially endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris. The road is anything but straight until the general election, and Harris has historically been seen at a disadvantage because she is a woman and black and Asian, which would typically seem like a tall order.

But she is also part of the outgoing administration and can leverage that dynamic, she comes out significantly younger and more relevant to a sizeable part of the population than 78-year old Trump… and, perhaps more importantly, she is not the opponent that the Trump campaign had preparing for all this time.

That, combined with the fact that Biden’s announcement effectively cut out the sympathy wave Trump had been riding on since his shooting, is a sign that all democratic hope is definitely not lost…