A democracy, if we can keep it
I usually try to avoid obvious references, but this one seems incredibly fitting today: as the work of the American Convention was nearing its end, a lady asked Benjamin Franklin what the new country’s regime would look like, to which the founding father famously responded — “A republic, if you can keep it”. This could easily be transposed to modern day France, with a small nuance: it is democracy itself that may be at stake here…
Let’s rewind: a month ago almost to the day, the European legislative elections handed a landslide win to France’s extreme right party, the National Rally. In the hour that followed the announcement, President Macron called for snap national legislative elections within 3 weeks, considering that this event upended the political equilibrium of the country, whose National Assembly was led by his party. This was an absolute shocker, as many predicted the main outcome would be the end of his own political group, which largely turned out to be true.
This startling decision — and timeline — was followed by a frenzied campaign, where the left unexpectedly managed to unite into a New Popular Front while the National Rally, an obvious favorite, could count on a few defections from the center right, including the main right wing party’s president himself. While the left’s alliance was welcomed by social democrats who saw in it a better chance of weighing in, Macron’s camp was effectively threatened from both sides, with a far right looking pretty good in this equation they had all but called for. The first round came: unsurprisingly, the National Rally led with about a third of the vote, on par with previous European elections. The risk of a French National Assembly led by the far right became ever so real.
A republican front then started to shape up: before the second round, all left wing candidates that came up third against a far right in the lead withdrew, so did in large part Macron’s centrist group as well as the (center) right. This meant that, instead of hundreds of 3-party battles where the moderate vote could be diluted into an easy win for the far right, only about a hundred of those 3-way fights took place. The National Rally still officially aimed for an absolute majority, while all polls predicted that they would indeed come out first, although without a majority, making it complicated to envisage an extreme right government. Having them as the first party of the land was bad enough.
Then came Sunday’s second round results: to almost everyone’s surprise, the left wing alliance came in first, then Macron’s group… and only then the far right. The republican front worked, the National Rally was effectively defeated, although it did achieve a 50% gain in seats and could boast the fact that it was the first party in the new National Assembly, other groups being made out of several parties. The left were the first to celebrate, making plans for a government and a prime minister hailing from their ranks. The issue was, although having come out first, they were about a hundreds votes shy of a majority and therefore needed outside support. And both Macron’s alliance and the center right clearly stated that they could discuss with the alliance’s more moderate parties, but not its most turbulent — and largest — component, La France Insoumise (LFI), whose positions are amongst the farthest from moderate policy making.
Some of Macron’s supporters then started floating another theory that would involve making an alliance with the center right. This would indeed make them the first group in the new assembly, although still not a majority group (several dozens of votes away, in fact). Meaning: in order for such an alliance to sustain itself, it would require overt or tacit support from the far right, without which a center / right government would get shot down at the earliest opportunity (next week). This would pave the way for a right / extreme right rapprochement, a long thought political impossibility that would further legitimize the National Rally to the point of becoming presidential. Meanwhile, said National Rally stayed mostly focused on minimizing their defeat, talking about a “deferred success” instead.
Make no mistake: what is happening right now is key to the future of the French democracy. The next few days/weeks will likely see several more declarations and iterations of a new political system for the country. There are a few elements to keep in mind here:
Any government that effectively ignores the left, which did come out first, would trigger tremendous backlash in a country that is already shaken by recent political turmoil and the implosion of traditional left wing and right wing parties, giving way to extreme options;
Shaping up an alliance between left and centrist groups may be difficult as the left’s alliance in its current iteration includes LFI, which many consider too extreme to talk to. There would be a need to come up with some sort of agreed-upon common ground, something the French are not famous for;
The far right threat remains incredibly prevalent as it will weigh in more than ever before, especially if given a de facto arbiter role in the event of center / right alliance.
My opinion is twofold:
Last Sunday’s results are a welcome surprise in that this may be an inflexion point in the seemingly inescapable rise of the extreme right in France. This election is the first effective defeat in the party’s recent history, and the republican front’s efficacy is proof that two thirds of the country do not wish to be governed by this demonstrably reactionary and xenophobic group;
There is an unexpected opportunity in shaping up a new path that prefigures the post-Macron era. One where more social policies are put in place that effectively address the frustrations of many far right voters, without giving in to the worse angels of our nature. Fighting their feeling of demotion with measures that ensure better living conditions, without cutting out immigration — which would end up costing us more…
There you have it. Depending on what we do next as a country will determine how long this political transition period lasts in France, and how bad it will have to be until new reformist forces and ideas emerge. I feel more hopeful today than a week ago that we will succeed in forging a way forward that does not include testing out the very principles of our democracy. Let us prove that we are capable of truly being the country of human rights.