The lesser of two evils

Oliver Roos | Unsplash

We find out what people are made of in times of crisis: what is currently happening in France is — sadly — proof of that. After the first round of snap legislative elections gave a strong lead, but likely no absolute majority, to the far right, what is playing out amongst other parties is incredibly telling of today’s political and ultimately moral hesitations in the country of human rights.

Following results from Sunday’s first round of legislative elections and the obvious lead of far right group National Rally, it took more or less time for other parties to (mostly) do the right thing: whenever there was a 3-way fight set for the second round with a risk of having the National Rally candidate benefit, the 3rd candidate, whether from the left wing alliance, Macron’s center or the moderate right, withdrew from the race. There were a few exceptions, more so on the center / right front, but a first source of relief here is that most candidates followed the long standing “republican ark” principle against the far right.

The immediate next step is therefore this ever-so-important second round on Sunday and the number of seats the National Rally does indeed win over. Polls show them getting a decisive lead, but statisticaly falling short of the absolute majority. Its leaders already started hinting at possible deals with “allies”: one could foresee a scenario where a few conservative dissidents join its ranks to reach the number required. The risk here is blatantly high: even without an absolute majority, the far right stands so close to it that it could still get control over parliament — and government.

This is undoubtedly the biggest threat that the French democracy is facing right now. For a few well known reasons:

1. The National Rally has never been in power, and therefore has no experience of actual (nationwide) government. When we saw the number of blunders the Trump administration went through even though they had “traditional” Republicans in their ranks, one can only guess what a French far right government would look like. Also, towns actually governed by the far right in recent years show flagrant mismanagement and recurring clientelism. Given the way our system is setup, president Macron would have limited power in containing what comes out of a far right parliament and government. We saw it happen several times in the past, albeit with non-extremist parties involved…

2. The National Rally’s “program” is simplistic at best. It is based on hazardous and at times unconstitutional notions such as “national preference” which challenges the rights of non-French residents, immigrants or binational citizens. The latter topic was addressed significantly in the past few days as it logically implies a hierarchy amongst citizens. There were also statements from party president and prime ministership hopeful Jordan Bardella about targeting French citizens “of foreign origin”, a concept so vague it could theoretically include him as he is of mostly Italian (and Algerian) origin. Then you have the economic aspect of this program which would likely trigger a major economic crisis, especially over time: questioning trade agreements with EU members and France’s very place in the EU will inevitably threaten our trade balance; lowering the retirement age and cutting out taxes for the youth* without compensation would increase the national deficit; reducing the number of foreign workers would weaken entire industries, such as the hospitality sector — weeks before the Olympic games. Of course, all of this comes with major risks for social rights as well: the rights of minorities (not only foreigners), the rights of LGBTQ+ communities, the rights of women (including reproductive rights) all could be put into question with a far right government in place. Once again, the US example is telling enough.

3. Although the National Rally has been attempting to muddy the waters, i.e. seemingly soften its stance on a number of topics, we mustn’t forget where it came from: a ragtag group of extremist ideologues and outright nazis. When the party was created as the National Front in 1972, two of its founders had been part of Nazi Germany’s Waffen SS, with the rest supporting Vichy’s collaborationist government. Its historical leader — and father of current presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen — made a number negationist comments over the years, (in)famously calling the Holocaust’s gas chambers “a footnote of history”. To this day, many of its members placate overtly racist, antisemitic and/or homophobic opinions. Paule Veyre De Soras, a candidate currently running in Mayenne's 1st constituency mentioned in an outlandish interview (in French) her Jewish ophthalmologist and Muslim dentist, seemingly unaware of the extreme level of prejudice such a statement displays. And this is just the tip of the iceberg: one can only imagine what is being said behind closed doors…

In this context, other politicians’ position should be plain and simple: ensure by all means necessary that such a group does not seize power. Although the left wing alliance’s stance on this was fairly clear from the beginning, Macron’s group was less so, not to mention the traditional right. They all readily condemn the National Rally, but not everyone outside of the left is conversely willing to support a vote for far left group LFI (La France Insoumise), although it happens to be the largest party within the left wing alliance — even against a National Rally candidate. The “neither nor” position: no support for the far right, but no support for the far left either.

While this position, in normal circumstances, does make sense, it is incredibly dangerous today. To be sure, LFI’s positions, and with them the left wing’s program, are questionable in and of themselves: unfunded social reforms, degrowth theories on climate, a condemnation of Israel’s current war in Gaza that edges on an unwillingness to recognize the terrorist nature of Hamas and seeps into antizionism and de facto antisemitism… That is all true and am no fan of this party, strongly disapprove with the list above, and frankly despise LFI’s leader, anti-European demagogue Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

But…

In times of crisis, one has to fully be conscious of the hierarchy of risks incurred, as no solution can come without consequences. Yes, LFI has a questionable platform and yes, it is part of the left wing alliance, which therefore does not constitute an ideal political option for moderates out there, myself included. However, when the alternative is the National Front, a party created by nazis, that is demonstrably more xenophobic or antisemitic than any other, whose so-called program (even if only partially implemented) will have a negative economic and social impact that the country will pay for years to come, and that has effectively zero experience of government… the choice is clear, and should be for everybody.

Granted, in the case where the National Rally is indeed defeated on Sunday, i.e. fails to reach any sort of majority (with or without allies), the crisis is all but over. The first item on the agenda will be forming a government to represent a wildly divided parliament. There is a clear risk here: forming some sort of republican alliance seems difficult at the moment as no group seems to be willing to fully work with the other, although none can rule alone. If we are left with a “technical”-type government, or no government at all as was the case in Belgium recently, it would imply that no major laws are passed and that people may grow even angrier at the government… all the way to the 2027 presidential election.

In other words, we first have one priority that should be crystal clear to everybody: beat the National Rally on Sunday as decisively as possible. And that implies having moderate citizens vote for LFI candidates if they truly value French republican principles over the current noise. After that will come another, perhaps even harder challenge to tackle: forming some sort of political platform that is strong enough to push reforms instead of serving as yet another springboard for the far right. Which already had too many.

* Interestingly, the National Rally’s proposal of cutting out taxes for people under the age of 30 is mostly void as very few young people reach tax paying brackets as it stands. Exceptions to this would actually be high paying jobs for privileged youths… such as 28-year old Jordan Bardella.