Decision time
We stand exactly one week away from the first round of France’s snap legislative elections. While England is about to go through the same exercise, the context and likely outcomes between the two countries are vastly different… here’s why.
All polls point to results that would bring France’s far-right National Rally and left to far-left alliance "New Popular Front” in leading positions, far ahead of the sitting President’s coalition. In other words, the likelihood of having Macron preside over a parliament - and therefore a government - run by the opposition is extremely high, but not just any opposition: downright extremist on the right end side, and extremist-led on the left end side. Which would be a first for the far right since World War II, and the first time for the far left in decades. All the while having a moderate president — an absolute first in French history…
People are intently focusing on the left / far left group, because it is a brand new entity that many observers (including yours truly) were not certain would emerge in a matter of days since Macron called for these elections following the European verdict. Indeed, the far left La France Insoumise (LFI) and the Socialist party (which led said European elections on the left) have many points of friction, so the fact that they reached a deal is in and of itself noteworthy. And has a lot of people scared: LFI, while unlikely to reach an absolute majority within the left, is known to run alliances way more efficiently than its allies and could therefore succeed in effectively running this new front. And their program is problematic on a number of levels: it supports going back on the retirement age with no realistic data to back it up, to significantly increase minimum wages once again without realistic financing plans, to jack up taxes on higher income households despite consequences… In short, a classic leftist agenda that will likely cost the country a significant amount while decreasing its international attractiveness. Not something to wish for.
However, and this is why this election is so critical, LFI does not even constitute the worst threat to French democracy today: the National Rally very much does. Not only, if elected, will the party work alone and therefore with more ease than through an alliance, but its positions are demonstrably more dangerous than anything the left or far left claim. For one, their economic policies are not so dissimilar from the left, calling for national preference and protecting low income (French) workers. But that is only the tip of the iceberg: what stands behind the national preference principle is a deeply xenophobic vision of France shutting itself down from its European allies, from immigration in all its shapes, from international exchanges in general. And then there is the “purge” that would implicitly come from within: changing the laws so that foreigners or “citizens of foreign origin” (whatever that means) would have less access to the services the state supposedly provides for everybody on its soil, but also undermining the rights of all minorities (and women). The worst in all of this is the sheer risk factor involved: this party never ruled nationwide, so there is a strong chance that many of the mistakes it is bound to make while in power would actually be accidental…
There you have it: for years, the risk of extremism has been growing in France, just as it has in many other countries across the world. Italy already has an extremist government, albeit based on a strange far right / far left mix. Brazil had its semi-dictator, Argentina currently has one. But France falling into that category would sure be a step in the wrong direction. And the danger is this: people are so focused on the far left risk, which is real, that they tend to overlook that of the far right, which is not only real but effectively worse. We should never forget where the real risk lies, or else we are bound to pay for it for years to come…
Personal note: I will vote for President Macron’s group and hope not to have to do otherwise. In the advent of a “New Popular Front” or even LFI vs. National Rally dual in the second round, I will not hesitate to vote NPF/LFI for one should always pick the lesser of two evils.