A funny thing happened on the way from the European elections

On Sunday evening, we were coming back from a friends’ housewarming party in the suburbs — not just any suburb, mind you, but one town away from where I grew up — and expecting to get some bad news at 8pm, when first results from the European legislative elections would be announced.

All polls pointed to a problematic outcome, with moderate parties and candidates way down from the last election and populist groups looking stronger than ever. Especially in France, where the extreme right “National Rally” was expected to get as many votes as President Macron’s group and the center left — combined.

8pm came and didn’t disappoint: French results were as bad as expected, if not worse. The far right was celebrating their little victory — about 50% of all voters abstained — while representatives from other parties were seen fighting it out on TV sets as to who had received more of the leftover crumbs from the electorate. To be clear, it was not as bad overall: while the far right also grew in Germany (always concerning) and maintained itself in Italy, the center right kept its European leadership, albeit a more limited one. Discussions and deals will undoubtedly come.

Then came 9pm: President Macron made a surprise live TV appearance, commenting on the poor results his team and other moderate candidates had gotten… and announcing snap parliamentary elections in France in the coming weeks as a result. While votes in the European elections were no surprise, this was. And it got everyone talking / arguing immediately.

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The risk is evident: with the far right on a roll and in an already divided French parliament (there hasn’t been a majority since Macron got reelected in 2022), you could see the populist party gaining a controlling number of seats — if not a majority, as the most pessimistic will say. While that latter option sounds far fetched (pun intended), the likelihood of the National Rally becoming an ever bigger threat is very real.

That being said, another thing happened in those (French) European elections, which the President is quite obviously counting on: the Socialist candidate performed really well considering his party’s recent record, way better than the far left group which had been dominating that section of the electorate and constituted the loudest opposition block to Macron’s government in parliament. There is a good chance that tensions within the left, especially given the incredibly short amount of time to prepare, will weaken their prospects in the upcoming parliament.

I believe that Macron and his advisors are also betting on the reality principle here. While the European elections did offer the far right a lot of votes, that election is based on a strict one-round proportional system, unlike French legislative elections which take place over two rounds, therefore favoring more centrist voices. Beyond that, there is a sense that enough electors, even if they are frustrated by the current government, will opt for a moderate party rather than an untested populist group whose positions on immigration, the economy and social welfare are widely questionable.

That bet is a little weak, however: it has been made over and over for the past two decades, ever since National Front (the far right party’s original name) founder Jean-Marie Le Pen first reached the second round of the presidential election back in 2002. Moreover, it implies that voters will opt for a moderate candidate not because they particularly support — or even know — their program, but rather because the other guys’ is outlandish. And that is a problematic position to be in, especially over time…

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Now what? For starters, we have to make sure to vote in those new elections on June 30th and July 7th, i.e. the beginning of summer. Then, parties and candidates have to mobilize swiftly to get campaigns going in a context that was clearly unplanned. And we will have to see what kinds of deals are being made between parties: on the left, whether the far left / socialist divide can be transcended, and on the right, with center right party Les Républicains’ leader announcing today that he was willing to discuss with the far right, an historic departure from party policy against extremist groups*.

It is obviously difficult to tell what will happen for sure. But why not try? I (obviously) see the far right gaining seats, with or without the center right’s help. I see a somewhat divided left weakened from the last election. And I (hopefully) see a center that maintains itself, if not gather a certain amount of strength for Macron to finish his current mandate without having to handle an ungovernable political equation.

All in all, calling for new parliamentary elections in France is a risky but not absurd decision. Risky, because it can favor the far right. Not absurd, because it can also help solidify the center. Thus potentially ensuring that the next presidential election, in 2027, does not come with an ever worse outcome…

Here’s to hoping, always.

* Key leaders from Les Républicains quickly spoke out against their leader’s decision to consider a deal with the far right, so we will have to see how this situation unfolds. In any event, tensions on the right are on full display…